New federal 'do no harm' rule cuts aid to college programs whose grads earn too little

The U.S. Department of Education has begun rolling out an accountability test, mandated by last year’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act, that ties federal student loan eligibility to graduate earnings. Undergraduate programs whose graduates don’t out-earn workers with no college degree, and graduate programs whose alumni earn less than a typical bachelor’s holder, risk losing access to federal aid. A program fails only after missing the threshold in two of three consecutive years, and experts across the political spectrum call the bar modest — roughly $30,000 to $41,000 a year in most states. Notably, the test ignores student debt entirely, so a debt-free low earner and one buried in loans are treated identically.

Department estimates suggest most programs pass easily, but more than 800,000 students are enrolled in ones likely to fail, about half at for-profit schools. The highest failure rates hit undergraduate certificate programs (cosmetology, bodywork), associate degrees training early-childhood educators, and master’s programs in mental and social health services. Only about 1% of four-year bachelor’s programs fail, but those that do cluster in the arts — including elite music schools like Juilliard, the New England Conservatory, and Indiana’s Jacobs School.

Arts-education advocates warn the earnings-only yardstick could push colleges to preemptively cut music, theater, and studio-art programs, hollowing out fields that don’t pay well but matter culturally. They also argue the metric misjudges artists, whose incomes tend to be volatile early on and stabilize later. First earnings data gets calculated in early 2027, with the earliest aid consequences arriving in the 2028–2029 award year, so current students won’t lose access immediately.