India's Fertility Drop Arrives Decades Ahead of Forecasts

India’s birth rate has fallen faster than demographers predicted, slipping below replacement level while the country is still poor and largely rural. The shift undercuts long-held assumptions that fertility decline tracks rising income, urbanization, and women’s workforce participation in a predictable sequence.

The implications reach well beyond South Asia. If India can age before it gets rich, other developing economies likely will too, compressing the window governments have to build pension systems, healthcare capacity, and productivity-driving infrastructure. The pattern suggests the global demographic transition is accelerating on a timetable policymakers have not planned for.

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